Israel has obviously been waiting for the right moment to undertake an all-out attack on Lebanon to weaken Hezbollah both militarily and more importantly politically. The latter it hopes to achieve by undermining support for the group outside its core supporters and forcing the Lebanese political players to take sides. Supporting Hezbollah is no longer free. The price is chaos.
From Israel’s point of view, weakening Hezbollah has become critical in the face of increasing tensions with Iran. Any future confrontation with Iran must be preceded by a neutralization of the Hezbollah asset that Iran can use to fight Israel up close. Once Hezbollah is taken out, Israel might proceed to weaken Syria before it even considers attacking Iran.
For those Lebanese who regret the country being dragged again into regional war, the grave error was tolerating Hezbollah’s sovereignty in Lebanon. It is the Lebanese state’s responsibility and duty to make decisions of war and peace and not that of an independent militia. The fact is that Lebanese government had been given ample time to deal with Hezbollah but was unable to. Though in Lebanese eyes a best effort had been made to implement 1559, Israelis were obviously growing impatient.
Something positive can arise from this crisis. A weaker Hezbollah could indeed be the result, weakening Syria’s and Iran’s hands in the country and opening the way for a new era in Lebanon where the army controls every inch of soil in the country and the government has the final say on all matters of war and peace. However, this would depend on events in the coming days. If matters escalate and Syria and/or Iran decide to join in the hostilities, all out war would have the effect of strengthening Hezbollah rather than weakening them. The result would be devastating for Lebanon.
Keeping in mind the apparent importance of Israel’s recent campaign in Lebanon strategically, it appears to be pre-meditated. I would not be surprised if a trap had been set for Hezbollah by giving them an opportunity to kidnap those two soldiers. What was the tank doing on the Lebanese side of the blue line? In this way Israel would have its pretext to attack Lebanon without the real opposition of the international community.
Hi Cherif,
First I must say I was a little surprised from the attitude in Lebanese blogs, condemning Hizbulla. For some reason I was sure the organization is popular and well supported in Lebanon (one reason is that representatives of the organization were elected to the government and that Lebanon’s army refused to take responsibility for the south).
I agree to everything you said in the post, beside the idea in the last paragraph, implying Israel *wanted* our soldiers to be attacked, killed and kidnapped.
Like every organized country, Israel has drawer plans in case of… and that includes many scenarios. When the Hizbulla attacked, it was just a matter of reaching a pre-made plan and brining it to the Israeli security cabinet.
You also have to remember, that reactions escalated cause of the tons of missiles Hizbulla fired on civilian cities in the back of Israel (as I write this even Tiberius was hit).
It is the common believe here in Israel that we have reacted not only properly but with restrains. Some people here are even calling to be much less tolerant. An Israel Arab which Hizbulla bombed his village (!!!) said on TV that Lebanon should be erased now.
I truly hope all this madness will end soon. Both for the Lebanese people, and for ours.
May you and your family be safe. Take care.